With so much market noise about the potential of AI to transform telecom, it would be easy to forget that transformation has been promised in telecom for at least a decade already. Not only through the work to virtualize networks, but also the arrival of cloud, of machine learning, of automation, of open and disaggregated networks, and last but not least: 5G. However an analysis of the impact of efforts over the last decade to improve the financial operating metrics of telecom operators reveals disappointing results.

The overall picture is one of flat CapEx, OpEx and Revenue, with CapEx still mostly focused on infrastructure investment. Spending on network automation software has slowed, and our forecasts show only a modest increase in OSS spending with more modern automation systems replacing spend on maintaining existing OSS – forecasts based on substitution, not growth. Despite the apparent full-scale buy-in to autonomous networks, the effects are not yet being seen in increased levels of investment in the critical enabling software.