COVID-19 could become the black swan event for the economy

Home News News COVID-19 could become the black swan event for the economy

For many of us, this past week was a surprise that MWC2020 telecoms biggest tech show of the year could be canceled just one week before the event was to begin. Much has been said both by me and others on whether it was fear driven or a prudent step by GSMA to pull the plug on the event. Arguably the GSMA had its hand forced as major exhibitors started withdrawing a week before GSMA canceled the show. The larger question is what impact will COVID-19 have on the economy and business travel over the next year. What we know is that 99% of the cases are in China, 67,000 cases worldwide, 1,500 deaths, the speed or sustained transmission of COVID-19 is greater than the flu but less than measles, the mortality rate is 2%, and a deployable vaccine is about a year away. Health officials are containing the virus by isolation and tracing but don’t know how far it can travel airborne. The data up to now coming out of China is suspect as their methods for tracking and reporting don’t meet the WHO guidelines. Any companies where their manufacturing base is in China will be impacted by COVID-19. […]

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